I like to assume that anyone reading one of my posts is starting at zero. I’m not doing exactly that here, because I’m not explaining in detail all the rules of casino blackjack.
Dealer Final Hand Probability Odds. This next table shows the odds of what the dealer's final hand will be. Usually in blackjack, the dealer must hit on 16 and stand on 17. These rules are slightly different for other variations of twenty-one. So generally, the odds of the dealer's final score being 16 are 0% because he must hit.
But I do want to draw the distinction between hard hands and soft hands.
Blackjack is a simple comparing game where the player and dealer each start with a two-card hand. The one with the higher total points for their hand wins the bet, but only if they keep theirtotal to 21 or below. A total of 22 or higher is an automatic loss.
The cards have points based on their rank. The numbered cards have the same number of points as their numbers: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10. The face cards (jack, queen, and king) are alsoworth 10 points each.
The only exception is the ace. No one would blame you for thinking that an ace is worth 1 point. It is, in fact, in many situations, worth a single point.
But it’s also worth 11 points.
When you have a hand with no aces in it, you have a hard total. This means that the total is what the total is.
For example, if you have a jack and a 3, you have a hard total of 13. There’s no wiggle room there. That’s the total.
Blackjack Dealer Hits Soft 17
But if you have an ace and a 3, you have a soft total. That’s because the ace counts as 11, but if you get a card that would otherwise give you a total of 22, you can count it as a 1 instead.
With an ace and a 3, you have a soft 14. If you hit that hand and get a 10, you have a hard 14. (Any hand where the ace must be considered 1 point to avoid busting is also considered a hardhand.)
The strategy for a player with a soft hand as opposed to a hard hand is significantly different. Since you have that added layer of protection from busting, the right move is often to play a softtotal more aggressively.
But when we talk about a soft 17 “rule” in blackjack, we’re talking about how the dealer plays his hand.
Gauging the odds when you bet blackjack is the key to success. It should be stated, however, that blackjack odds are generated under a wide range of variables that include the number of decks, the amount of players at the table and the rules.
In fact, blackjack table rules will always have the biggest impact on the odds.
Dealer Stands/Hits on Soft 17
A soft 17 for the dealer is dependent on the presence of an an ace or not. On some tables, the dealer is allowed to hit on a soft 17 which causes a variance of -0.22% for the player as opposed to restricting the dealer from doing this. So under most situations it’s better to sit at a table where the dealer is not allowed to hit on a soft 17.
Player Blackjack vs. Dealer Blackjack Push
On an eight-deck table, the chances of both you and the dealer hitting blackjack is increased simply by virtue of their being more combinations available to each of you. In this case, having this rule increases the player’s chance of winning by +0.35%, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but every bit counts.
There are a variety of blackjack appendixes and sites that will outline odds for the game based under certain criteria, using a variety of advanced algorithms to generate metrics like standard variance. These are extremely helpful when playing blackjack, but they are by no means necessary to enjoy success at the table.
If you are a casual player, then the best thing to do is develop a general, overall strategy that you can apply at the table instead of memorizing all the blackjack odds. As you can see, certain rules are designs to help the player while others are engineered to be beneficial for the dealer. Knowing which rules to generally avoid can be helpful in overcoming and increasing your blackjack odds.
Dealer Hit On Soft 17
New to the game? Then learn how to play here!
Dealt Hand Probability
| Two Card Combination | Frequency Percentage |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 Blackjack | 4.80% |
| Hard Standing (17 - 20) | 30.00% |
| Decision Hands (2-16) | 38.70% |
| No Bust | 26.50% |
| Total (all two card hands) | 100% |
Dealer ‘Up Card’ Odds
When a dealer places the ‘up’ card for their hand, the following odds come into play. The first column with percentages reflects dealer bust potential and the second column of percentages reveals a player’s probable advantage.
| Dealer's Up Card | Dealer Odds of Busting | Player Advantage |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.80% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.40% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.00% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.20% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.90% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.30% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.40% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.30% |
| 10 | 21.43% | -16.90% |
| J | 21.43% | -16.90% |
| Q | 21.43% | -16.90% |
| K | 21.43% | -16.90% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.00% |
Odds of a Bust
A bust means you exceed the value of 21 with your card hand. Using the first column, quickly find the value of the first two cards you were dealt and the probability of whether you might bust if you ‘hit’ for an additional card into play.
| Total Hand Value | Probability of Going Bust |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or less | 0% |
Probability Numbers for Decks – House Advantage Odds
The more decks that are involved at the table decreases a player’s blackjack odds, but it can also be beneficial when playing at large tables are working with multiple hands.
Compared to an eight-deck table, playing at these types of tables will increase the player’s odds:
Single-Deck = +0.44%
Double-Deck = +0.28%
Four-Deck = +0.006%
(compared to an eight-deck table)
Generally speaking, the fewer decks at the table, the better the odds are for the player. As you can see, the blackjack odds are dramatically better in a single-deck game for the player so if you’re a beginner these are the best types of games to target.
| Number of Decks | House Odds Advantage |
|---|---|
| Single Deck | 0.04% |
| Double Deck | 0.42% |
| Four Decks | 0.61% |
| Six Decks | 0.67% |
| Eight Decks | 0.70% |